Grand Theft Auto IV delayed to 2008 – PlayStation 3 News at GameSpot

My favorite game site (and every other gaming site on the net) has been discussing the recent GTA IV delay basically framing the discussion around the question: “are the consumers reacting negatively?”

In my case, I think the answer to that question is, simply, no. Here is why:

1. Rockstar has made the GTA series a huge hit. When, in the marketplace, the supplier reaches a level of dominance that Rockstar has achieved, the consumer is much more forgiving. Why? Because the consumer has expectations that they know the supplier will deliver on (e.g. based on previous experience with Rockstar games and and the GTA series in particular, they know that whenever they get their hands on IV, that it will be a superior product).

2. “It’s done, when it’s done.” My much admired developer/publishers over at id software coined the phrase that the gaming industry lives and dies by. The consumer sits anxiously awaiting the next blockbuster hit from the top developers and publishers, while the marketers go to work building the demand and anticipation for launch date (see our recent history with Halo and Gears of War). The catch phrase generated by John Carmack is exactly what that consumer understands most about his/her gaming addiction: “I want the game now, but I do not want the game now if it is going to suck!” My response: take your time Rockstar and build a great game, you will be rewarded for such fortitude.

3. Maybe, just maybe it has nothing to do with the game itself. What do I mean by that? I first have to discuss one of the things I hate most in the gaming industry: packing the holiday season with releases. The strategy of packing the holiday season with releases is a strategy of, I believe, easily capturing the low hanging fruit. Most of the money in the entire gaming industry is made during the holiday season because, obviously, that is when the “gaming core” are receiving presents. In other words, what does the gaming core ask for during the holiday season? Video games. When do most people have money that they are willing to spend? The holiday season. Well, look at this crowded holiday season for 2007.

What I hate about that is that it leaves the consumer begging, pleading for new content in the first half of the new year. So…what if Rockstar is going against the usual marketplace norms and this delay has nothing to do with the game itself?

Hear me out on this one – what if Take-Two was deliberately delaying its release into 2008 to avoid the high competition of the holiday season and the potential to be overshadowed by the likes of Halo 3, Guitar Hero III, Assassin’s Creed, Army of Two, UTIII, etc.? If so, that is smart in my books for two reasons: 1. the part of the year that the gaming consumer hates most, Q1 and Q2, is exactly when Take-Two will be releasing one of its most highly-anticipated games ever. There are NO new blockbuster-level games in Q1 and Q2 of the new year! So, what if Take-Two was releasing IV to drop in the period of the year when there is little competition, and is betting on the fact that so many people will buy IV because of their previous experience with the entire GTA series (see: point #1 above)?

Note: the press releases have all said that Take-Two is delaying the release until “the second quarter of its fiscal year 2008″. That means the release could be somewhere in the months of May, June or July – sounds like the summer months to me, when there is no school.

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Food for thought…

A gamble strategy by Rockstar/Take-Two? Possibly smart?

Only the financial performance of the GTA IV release will tell us.